Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 22.820715 24.840085 27.023997 29.573024 32.481373 35.714000 39.603609
2025-11-23 19.477824 22.198572 25.346895 29.304327 34.211342 40.186108 48.156183
2025-11-30 17.174636 20.260274 24.020333 29.033767 35.694841 44.476334 57.361497
2025-12-07 15.548303 18.850712 23.046232 28.921557 37.207110 48.940195 67.785950
2025-12-14 14.229879 17.634508 22.108605 28.635140 38.322001 52.942339 78.501357
2025-12-21 13.616176 17.246814 22.183431 29.694939 41.467035 60.529731 97.301532
2025-12-28 12.722077 16.374387 21.467411 29.468015 42.547464 64.959363 111.943239
2026-01-04 12.018969 15.695919 20.943165 29.434622 43.886545 70.064952 129.853892
2026-01-11 11.509354 15.243485 20.693919 29.778257 45.883813 76.804612 154.403979
2026-01-18 10.938178 14.652311 20.173770 29.603015 46.904514 81.837996 177.361741
2026-01-25 10.419078 14.098948 19.660167 29.369701 47.761523 86.718976 202.755520
2026-02-01 9.988805 13.648932 19.268989 29.296083 48.901154 92.513601 234.901464
2026-02-08 9.550128 13.166766 18.802258 29.062554 49.737332 97.981225 271.051493
2026-02-15 9.141547 12.707772 18.340866 28.793126 50.467334 103.458486 312.894355
2026-02-22 8.768466 12.282934 17.905328 28.526169 51.163561 109.105173 362.298885
2026-03-01 8.454022 11.933371 17.571002 28.415419 52.191514 116.059881 428.280099
2026-03-08 8.136120 11.560640 17.171057 28.135575 52.785020 121.973345 498.890420
2026-03-15 8.052948 11.564577 17.421442 29.168503 56.703443 140.060101 696.201755
2026-03-22 7.782057 11.243053 17.074590 28.947203 57.467171 147.856365 837.899621
2026-03-29 7.557627 10.987931 16.830049 28.914605 58.719527 158.084987 1049.233399
2026-04-05 7.399401 10.836205 16.762287 29.249528 61.024268 173.702418 1429.710357
2026-04-12 7.182480 10.573946 16.474733 29.078715 61.904807 183.953277 1822.041965
2026-04-19 6.971448 10.312583 16.173889 28.851288 62.592546 193.853102 2338.261816